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Probabilistic safety assessment of multi-functional flood defences

机译:多功能防洪系统的概率安全评估

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摘要

The state of the art of flood defence design and assessment shows that the most common adaptation measures for coping with the uncertainties associated with climate change often involve an increase in the size of these water-retaining structures. The shortage of habitable areas in the deltaic zones and the required increase in dimensions gave birth to the multifunctional flood defence concept. The main idea behind the multifunctional flood defences is that the extra space that results from an almost inevitable increase in dimensions can be exploited by including additional non-water retaining functions such as commercial, recreational, ecological and habitational space. The inclusion of these new functions will also allow these defences to be financially feasible as their marginal cost reduces due to the expected benefits from the additional function allocation. The addition of functions will require structural embedments for connecting them to the transport, sewage, water supply, and electricity networks. Flood defences are exposed to deterioration processes known as “failure mechanisms” which may be triggered during flood events. The embedment of hard structures derived from the connecting requirements to the different infrastructure networks will have an impact on these processes and their frequency of occurrence. The present work aimed to quantify these frequency changes (Failure probabilities) by combining detailed physical modeling and emulation techniques so that the derived effects from structural embedments are also included during the probabilistic safety assessment of flood defences.
机译:防洪设计和评估的最新水平表明,应对气候变化不确定性的最常见适应措施通常涉及增加这些保水结构的尺寸。三角洲地区宜居区域的短缺和所需尺寸的增加催生了多功能防洪概念。多功能防洪系统的主要思想是,通过包括商业,娱乐,生态和居住空间等其他非保水功能,可以利用几乎不可避免的尺寸增加所带来的额外空间。包含这些新功能还将使这些防御措施在财务上可行,因为由于额外功能分配的预期收益,其边际成本降低了。功能的增加将需要结构嵌入,以将其连接到运输,污水,供水和电力网络。洪水防御会遭受称为“故障机制”的恶化过程,这可能在洪水事件期间触发。从连接需求到不同基础架构网络的硬结构嵌入将对这些过程及其发生频率产生影响。本工作旨在通过结合详细的物理建模和仿真技术来量化这些频率变化(失效概率),以便在防洪概率安全性评估期间也包括从结构嵌入物中获得的效果。

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  • 作者

    Aguilar Lopez, Juan Pablo;

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  • 年度 2016
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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